One way in which Manifest is unusual: we’re bringing together folks who have been embroiled in various internet disputes.

• Ben Pace vs Nonlinear/Tracing Woodgrains
• Trevor Klee vs Aaron Silverbook
• AI Pause (Holly Elmore) vs Accelerate (Brian Chau)
• Scott Alexander vs NYT (?)
• and of course, Kalshi vs Polymarket

Some musings and personal reflections:

• Is this a “normal” amount of movement drama? Or an unusually high amount, because of contrarianess/debatefulness
• There’s something particularly catchy about conflict and drama; it makes for really good, engaging news
  • Many of Manifold’s largest news cycles showcase this kind of conflict (Sama firing; LK99)
• I find myself with very strong sympathies to the folks on both sides of the disagreement.
  • And often feel like the conflict is needless, as a result
    • For example, with Trevor and Aaron I spent a bit of time trying to encourage the two of them to talk it out:
• Would be nice to suss out some kind of “nemeses fight it out” event at Manifest, in a mostly playful and satirical spirit
  • I proposed that we pit these folks together in a wrestling ring at Manifest; alas, nobody else was excited for this